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There鈥檚 a good chance of an El Ni帽o weather pattern forming by the end of the year. That could be good for easing or even ending the Texas drought. But it鈥檚 not a sure thing.
For meteorologists to know El Ni帽o has definitely arrived, warmer surface water in the Pacific . So far, that hasn鈥檛 happened.
Forecasters, however, are already seeing another sign of El Ni帽o: fewer hurricanes than average in the Atlantic.
鈥淚 think we鈥檝e only had five named storms so far [in the Atlantic], about 50 percent of normal,鈥� says Victor Murphy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. 鈥淲hereas the Eastern Pacific Basin, I think they鈥檙e on the 鈥淧鈥� storm Polo. I think they鈥檙e at about 150 percent of activity in the Pacific.鈥�
The 鈥淥鈥� storm, 鈥淥dile,鈥� from the Pacific, dropped a sizable amount of rain on parts of Texas just last week.
Some states, like California, were hoping for a 鈥渟trong鈥� El Ni帽o to dramatically change weather patterns and deliver them from drought. But even a 鈥渨eaker鈥� pattern could bring a wetter-than-average winter to Texas, says Murphy.
鈥淓ven with a weak event, there鈥檚 still a pretty strong tilt towards above-normal precipitation for Texas, especially South Texas and Central Texas,鈥� he says. 鈥淎s you go north, that signal decreases, that correlation between El Ni帽o and precipitation decreases.鈥�
But even a strong El Ni帽o pattern does not guarantee more rain.
鈥淥dds of being wetter and cooler than normal with an El Ni帽o are only about two out of three,鈥� John Neilsen-Gammon told StateImpact Texas earlier this month. 鈥淪o we鈥檝e got a two out of three chance of [an El Ni帽o] forming. Then [if one forms] we鈥檝e got a two out of three chance of it coming through with the weather we need.鈥�
